{"id":2353,"date":"2014-08-14T20:55:40","date_gmt":"2014-08-14T18:55:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ardasenturk.com.tr\/?p=2353"},"modified":"2014-08-14T20:55:40","modified_gmt":"2014-08-14T18:55:40","slug":"cumhurbaskanligi-seciminde-oy-kaymalari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ardasenturk.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/14\/cumhurbaskanligi-seciminde-oy-kaymalari\/","title":{"rendered":"Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Se\u00e7iminde Oy Kaymalar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7iminde hangi adaya hangi partiden ne kadar oy kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten bir grafik yay\u0131nland\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Veri odakl\u0131 m\u00fchendislik ve tasar\u0131m sitesi \u00c7ilek A\u011fac\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 veriler; Mart 2014 yerel se\u00e7imlerinde oy verilen partiler ve 2014 cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinde oy verilen adaylar aras\u0131 oy kaymalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Olu\u015fturulan grafikte \u00e7izgilerin kal\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131 kayan oy say\u0131s\u0131 ile do\u011fru orant\u0131l\u0131 olarak veriliyor. \u0130ki u\u00e7taki dikey d\u00f6rtgenlerin y\u00fckseklikleri de iki se\u00e7imde al\u0131nan oy miktarlar\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ilek A\u011fac\u0131 sitesinde yay\u0131nlanan grafik \u015fu ifadelerle yorumlan\u0131yor:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cKedilerin trafolardan uzak durdu\u011fu, kazanan\u0131 bol, kaybedeni ise olmayan bir cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imini geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k.<\/p>\n

\u00c7at\u0131 aday\u0131 \u0130hsano\u011flu MHP se\u00e7meninin ne kadar deste\u011fini ald\u0131? Se\u00e7imlere kat\u0131l\u0131m neden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fc; CHP\u2019li se\u00e7menler sand\u0131\u011fa gitmedi mi? Demirta\u015f\u2019\u0131n oylar\u0131n\u0131n %10\u2032a dayanmas\u0131 sol i\u00e7in bir mesaj m\u0131? Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 bizim kafam\u0131z\u0131 bu sorular me\u015fgul ediyordu ve bu yaz\u0131m\u0131zda bunlara cevap arayaca\u011f\u0131z. E\u011fer se\u00e7imler ikinci tura kalsayd\u0131, parti se\u00e7menlerinin turu ge\u00e7en kalan iki adaydan hangisine y\u00f6neldi\u011finin analizlerini yapmay\u0131 hayal ediyorduk ancak Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7imi ilk turda kazanmas\u0131 hevesimizi kursa\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda b\u0131rakt\u0131. Biz de elimizdekilerle yetinip son se\u00e7imin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz yerel se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131k.<\/p>\n

Uzun yaz\u0131lar okumay\u0131 sevmeyenler i\u00e7in \u00f6zet ge\u00e7elim:<\/span><\/p>\n

MHP\u2019li se\u00e7menler \u0130hsano\u011flu\u2019nu desteklemedi. CHP\u2019li se\u00e7menlerin sand\u0131\u011fa kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fc ve belki de bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fck se\u00e7imlerin ikinci tura kalmas\u0131n\u0131 engelledi. Ama \u0130hsano\u011flu\u2019nun genel olarak CHP se\u00e7meninin deste\u011fini ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Demirta\u015f, HDP ve BDP d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki partilerin se\u00e7menlerini ikna etmi\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor ancak ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz yerel se\u00e7imlerde oy kullanmam\u0131\u015f \u00f6nemli bir kesimin deste\u011fiyle oylar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015f. Erdo\u011fan AK Parti se\u00e7menin neredeyse firesiz blok deste\u011fi ile \u00c7ankaya\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zet dahi okumay\u0131p s\u0131rf resimlere bakanlar i\u00e7in de ana grafi\u011fimiz yukar\u0131da. Grafi\u011fi yorumlamadan \u00f6nce y\u00f6ntemle ilgili bir uyar\u0131\/not: Y\u00f6ntem olarak \u00f6nceki se\u00e7imlerde uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ekolojik \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m (ecologocal inference) tekni\u011fini kullan\u0131yoruz. Bu teknik il\u00e7eler aras\u0131 oy de\u011fi\u015fimlerine bakarak bir se\u00e7imden di\u011ferine oy kaymalar\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Tekni\u011fin detaylar\u0131 i\u00e7in verdi\u011fimiz linke t\u0131klayabilirsiniz. Verece\u011fimiz sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 kesin say\u0131lar olarak de\u011fil ama politika biliminde s\u0131k\u00e7a kullan\u0131lan bir tekni\u011fin istatistik\u00ee tahminleri olarak yorumlaman\u0131z yerinde olacakt\u0131r. Biz kolay yaz\u0131m gere\u011fi \u201cCHP se\u00e7meninin %85\u2032i \u0130hsano\u011flu\u2019na oy vermi\u015f.\u201d diyece\u011fiz ama siz \u201cKulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z tahmin y\u00f6ntemi yerel se\u00e7imlerde CHP\u2019ye oy vermi\u015f insanlar\u0131n %85\u2032inin \u0130hsano\u011flu\u2019na oy verdi\u011fini tahmin ediyor.\u201d diye okuyun bunu. Elde etti\u011fimiz sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz sand\u0131k sonras\u0131 anketleri ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 d\u00f6rt g\u00f6zle bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Yukar\u0131daki grafikte yerel se\u00e7imlerde oy verilen partiler ve cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinde oy verilen adaylar aras\u0131 oy kaymalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebilirsiniz. \u00c7izgilerin kal\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131 kayan oy say\u0131s\u0131 ile do\u011fru orant\u0131l\u0131. \u00d6rne\u011fin yerel se\u00e7imlerde AK Parti\u2019ye oy veren 20 milyon \u00fczeri se\u00e7menin %89\u2032u yani yakla\u015f\u0131k 18 milyonu cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinde Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131 tercih etmi\u015f. AKP\u2019den Erdo\u011fan\u2019a giden \u00e7izginin kal\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da 18 milyon se\u00e7meni temsil edecek kal\u0131nl\u0131kta. (100,000 oydan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck kaymalar\u0131 grafikte g\u00f6stermiyoruz.) \u0130ki u\u00e7taki dikey d\u00f6rtgenlerin y\u00fckseklikleri de iki se\u00e7imde al\u0131nan oy miktarlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

\"oy-kayma\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Dikkatimizi \u00e7eken sonu\u00e7lar:<\/span><\/p>\n

MHP d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, se\u00e7menler partilerinin destekledi\u011fi adaylara sad\u0131k kalm\u0131\u015flar. Yerel se\u00e7imlerde AKP, CHP veya HDP\/BDP\u2019ye oy verip de cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7iminde partilerinin desteklemedi\u011fi bir adaya oy veren se\u00e7menler yok denecek kadar az. \u0130stisna, MHP. Yerel se\u00e7imlerde MHP\u2019ye oy veren se\u00e7menlerin sadece %56\u2032s\u0131 \u0130hsano\u011flu\u2019na oy vermi\u015f. %28\u2032i ise Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131 tercih etmi\u015f. MHP ve CHP se\u00e7menleri aras\u0131nda sand\u0131\u011fa gitmeyenlerin oran\u0131 AKP\u2019ye g\u00f6re daha fazla: AKP se\u00e7meninin %10\u2032u CHP se\u00e7meninin %14\u2032\u00fc MHP se\u00e7meninin %16\u2032s\u0131 BDP ve HDP se\u00e7meninin s\u0131ras\u0131yla %1\u2032i ve %3\u2032\u00fc cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinde oy kullanmam\u0131\u015f. CHP ve MHP se\u00e7menlerinin kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 AKP se\u00e7meni kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olsayd\u0131, se\u00e7im ikinci tura kalabilirdi. Ama \u0130hsano\u011flu\u2019nun CHP se\u00e7meninin %85\u2032inin oyunu ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmay\u0131n. Bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan ya da b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeden s\u00f6z etmek iddial\u0131 bir yorum olur.<\/p>\n

Selahattin Demirta\u015f, BDP ve HDP d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki parti se\u00e7menlerinden fazla oy almam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Ancak yerel se\u00e7imlerde oy kullanmayan 7 milyonun \u00fcst\u00fcndeki se\u00e7menin %13\u2032\u00fc Demirta\u015f\u2019\u0131 tercih etmi\u015f. Erdo\u011fan ve \u0130hsano\u011flu i\u00e7in bu oranlar\u0131n %7\u2032\u015fer oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek, Demirta\u015f ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz se\u00e7imlerde sand\u0131\u011fa gitmeyenlerin hat\u0131r\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131r bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 bu se\u00e7imlerde sand\u0131\u011fa getirebilmi\u015f.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7iminde hangi adaya hangi partiden ne...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2355,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,25],"tags":[289,313,315],"manset":[],"bilesen":[],"class_list":["post-2353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-manset","category-siyaset","tag-cilek-agaci","tag-cumhurbaskanligi","tag-cumhurbaskanligi-secim"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ardasenturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2353","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ardasenturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ardasenturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ardasenturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ardasenturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2353"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ardasenturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2353\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ardasenturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2355"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ardasenturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2353"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ardasenturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2353"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ardasenturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2353"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ardasenturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=2353"},{"taxonomy":"bilesen","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ardasenturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bilesen?post=2353"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}